Since the U.S. employed the “Pivot to East Asia” strategy in 2012, the United States (U.S.) and China have experienced and escalated conflicts over multiple issues, such as trade and the Taiwan Strait issue. These conflicts between the U.S. and China require South Korea to deliberate appropriate foreign policies to survive, because South Korea has relied heavily on the U.S. in security issues and China in economic issues. South Korean security has relied on the U.S.-South Korea alliance, while China is the largest trading partner of South Korea. In these circumstances, if the South Korean government adopts some foreign policies that can worsen the relationship with either the U.S. or China, its national interests would be substantially damaged. Thus, the South Korean government needs prudent foreign policy decisions, not a policy to spoil the relationship with either the U.S. or China. I suggest three foreign policy strategies for the South Korean government.
First, South Korea should try to obtain policy concessions from the U.S., when South Korea concedes a policy demand from the U.S.. The U.S. has demanded that South Korea joins multiple international institutions, such as the Indian-Pacific Economic Framework (the IPEF) and the Chip 4 Alliance, to politically and economically contain China and rebuild international supply chains excluding China. Furthermore, the U.S. invited South Korea to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in 2022 as an observer in order to strengthen and expand NATO to militarily contain China. South Korea cannot resist these demands from the U.S. because of its high reliance on the alliance with the U.S.. However, the U.S. needs South Korea to implement these foreign-policy strategies to contain China because of the importance of South Korea’s highly developed semiconductor industry and geopolitical status. This strategic importance of South Korea for the U.S. implies that the South Korean government has bargaining leverage over the U.S. to demand some policy concessions, such as a currency swap agreement, when it concedes a policy demand from the U.S.. However, the current South Korean government has conceded these demands without any policy demand from the U.S., although South Korea should bear high economic and/or political costs caused by deteriorating the relationship with China. This approach may hurt South Korean interests. Thus, the South Korean government should rationally perceive its bargaining leverage over the U.S., and try to exchange policy concessions with the U.S. by using it.
Second, South Korea should more actively communicate with China. Since the Chinese government emphasizes nationalism to strengthen its autocratic system, many people in the international society have a high level of anti-Chinese sentiment, called Sinophobia. The high level of Sinophobia in South Korea encourages the South Korean government to employ hostile policies toward China. However, this approach may damage South Korean national interests. China is economically and politically important for South Korea, because South Korea cannot produce important products due to the important position of China in the international supply chain and China is a highly influential actor in the Korean Peninsula denuclearization issue. Thus, South Korea should more actively communicate with China, when South Korea concedes policy demands from the U.S. that China fears. South Korea cannot avoid conceding policy demands from the U.S. because of the importance of the relationship with the U.S.. However, South Korea can let China know that South Korea is trying to avoid violating the Chinese core interests. Such communication may not perfectly reduce fears of the Chinese government, but at least South Korea can avoid becoming Chinese main target to break the American containment policies.
Third, South Korea should strengthen its relationships with Southeast Asian and Latin American countries. The South Korean economy relies too heavily on China, and this economic structure makes South Korea more vulnerable to the conflicts between the U.S. and China. Thus, South Korea needs to reduce its economic reliance on China. Southeast Asia and Latin America can provide what China has provided for South Korea, such as cheap labor, rising markets, and important raw materials. Furthermore, they also suffer from political risk caused by the conflicts between the U.S. and China. These characteristics of Southeast Asia and Latin America imply that South Korea and these countries can more easily economically and/or politically cooperate with Southeast Asian and Latin American countries and can create substantial economic synergies because of South Korean high technologies. Thus, South Korea should try to strengthen relationships with Southeast Asia and Latin America to reduce risks caused by the conflicts between the U.S. and China.